Okay besties, let’s talk about The Trade Desk — because this stock just reminded everyone why you never count a comeback story out.
If you’ve followed me for a while, you know I love a good redemption arc — in life and in portfolios. And The Trade Desk (TTD) has been serving up the opposite of that for the past 18 months. The stock got absolutely wrecked, losing roughly 90% of its value thanks to slowing revenue growth and shrinking profits. Ouch doesn’t even cover it.
Here’s where it started unraveling: back in early 2025, the company reported Q4 results and missed its own forecast for the first time in 33 consecutive quarters. Thirty-three! That’s like showing up to brunch in head-to-toe perfect outfits for years and then suddenly forgetting pants. Investors noticed, and they did not let it slide. From there, it was mostly downhill — until this week.
The plot twist? Anticipation ahead of the company’s latest earnings report, plus news that a co-founder is coming back, sparked a serious rebound. And when the actual numbers dropped? Investors collectively cheered. The stock jumped more than 15% on Monday to $14.93.
So what actually happened? Let’s break it down, because I promise this is more digestible than it sounds.
The company’s third-quarter revenue came in at $736 million, down just 0.5%. The bottom line held up better than expected, though adjusted EBITDA declined 16% to $266 million, pushing adjusted earnings per share down nearly 27% to $0.33.
Now, I know what you’re thinking: “Jessie, how are we celebrating declining numbers?” Great question, queen. Here’s why. Management had guided for revenue of $650 million and adjusted EBITDA of $160 million. The results blew past both of those hurdles — easily. And Wall Street got caught off guard too. Analysts expected revenue of $651.4 million and adjusted EPS of $0.25. The Trade Desk cleared those bars with room to spare. It’s like telling your friends you’ll be 20 minutes late and then showing up early. Suddenly, you’re the most reliable person in the group chat.
One more green flag: customer retention stayed above 95% during the quarter — a track record that stretches back more than a decade. This is why I tell my coaching clients to look at retention metrics when evaluating a company. When customers don’t leave, that tells you something real about the business, no matter what the stock chart is doing that week.
CEO Jeff Green summed it up nicely, saying Q3 represented meaningful progress with results well ahead of expectations, and that while there’s still work to do, the company is moving with greater urgency to right the ship. The urgency part matters. Businesses that acknowledge their problems and move fast tend to recover faster than ones stuck in denial mode.
Now, the returning hero of this story. Last week, The Trade Desk announced that co-founder and former chief technology officer Dave Pickles is rejoining the company after stepping down in 2023. And this isn’t just some feel-good reunion — Pickles and Green co-founded The Trade Desk back in 2009 after working together at digital ad exchange AdECN, where Pickles and his team built the entire ad exchange in under seven months. That company was later acquired by Microsoft in 2007.
Here’s what I’d point out to anyone side-eyeing this move: Pickles is the creator and architect of The Trade Desk’s adtech system. According to Green, nobody knows the platform better. When the person who literally built the machine comes back to fix it, that’s a meaningful signal — and the market agreed, sending the stock up more than 15% on Monday.
So what does the future look like? For the upcoming fourth quarter, management is guiding for revenue of at least $755 million and adjusted EBITDA of $280 million. Yes, those are sequential gains, but they’d still represent year-over-year declines of 11% and 30% respectively. Context matters, though: analysts’ consensus estimates were calling for Q4 revenue of just $691 million, so the guidance came in significantly ahead of Wall Street’s predictions. When a company guides above what the smartest people on the street expected, that’s management telling you they see a turnaround taking shape.
Here’s my honest take, since you know I don’t do hype without receipts. I’m cautiously optimistic. The progress is real, but the real test is whether The Trade Desk can keep this trajectory going. One good quarter after a brutal stretch is promising — but I personally want to see another quarter or two headed in the right direction before I start planning the victory parade. This is exactly the discipline I drill into my coaching clients: don’t fall in love with a single earnings report. Consistency is the whole game, whether we’re talking about your budget or a stock’s fundamentals.
That said, here’s what makes this interesting from a valuation standpoint. Even after Monday’s rally, the stock trades at just 15 times earnings. For context, that’s a pretty modest price tag for a company with this kind of customer loyalty and a co-founder back at the helm. An intriguing valuation, absolutely. But intriguing isn’t the same as convincing — and I’d want more proof of a sustained recovery before adding shares myself.
The takeaway here isn’t really about one adtech stock. It’s about how you respond when an investment stumbles. Do you panic-sell at the bottom? Chase the first bounce? Or do you look at the actual numbers — retention, guidance, leadership changes — and make a calm, informed decision? That last one is the move, every single time.
If you want more of these breakdowns — real stocks, real numbers, zero jargon, explained like we’re chatting over iced lattes — come hang out with me. DM me your biggest investing question on Instagram, or join my mailing list so you never miss a money moment. Your wealth-building era starts now, babe — let’s make it a good one. 💛
