How evolving emissions rules may reshape electric vehicle adoption and compliance strategies across Europe
BOULDER, Colo., Aug. 12, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — A new report from Guidehouse Research explores the impact of new CO₂ targets on light commercial vehicle (LCV) manufacturers in the EU, EFTA and UK regions.
The EU’s CO₂ regulations for 2025–2027 place stringent demands on LCV manufacturers, and consequently, the number of electric LCVs (eLCVs) they sell as a percentage of their overall LCV sales must increase significantly. According to a new report from Guidehouse Research, while the overall LCV market is continuing to expand, for the first time in six years, demand for eLCVs is falling.
“In light of these new regulations, what changes are likely for Europe’s eLCV market—the combined EU, the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), and the UK (EU+EFTA+UK)—and what options do market participants have available to ensure their compliance?” says Ryan James, research director with Guidehouse Research. “Manufacturers will need to rethink vehicle design, fleet composition, and investment in electric models, while also exploring credits, partnerships, and infrastructure strategies to meet tightening CO₂ targets.”
According to the report, Guidehouse Research suggests:
- Regulations having an impact on the development and adoption of eLCVs in Europe are unnecessarily siloed, so a more holistic regulatory ecosystem should be adopted.
- Implementing the new regulations should be reconsidered in light of the potential threat they present to the legacy European automotive industry.
- Consideration should be given to what the 2025–2027 regulation is designed to achieve and whether it is properly framed to do so.
- Lacking infrastructure improvements, can any CO₂ targets promote eLCV adoption?
The report, What Impact Will the EU’s New CO2 Regulations Have on the Electric Light Commercial Vehicle Market? examines how new CO₂ targets will affect light commercial vehicle (LCV) manufacturers across the EU, EFTA, and UK, analyzing the structure of both conventional and electric LCV (eLCV) markets. It explores potential compliance strategies for meeting the updated emissions standards and evaluates whether these regulations are likely to accelerate or hinder eLCV adoption. An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Guidehouse Research website.
About Guidehouse Research
Guidehouse Research, the dedicated market intelligence arm of Guidehouse, provides research, data, and benchmarking services for today’s rapidly changing and highly regulated industries. Our insights are built on in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The team’s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research, and demand assessment, paired with a deep examination of technology trends, to provide a comprehensive view of emerging resilient infrastructure systems. Additional information about Guidehouse Research can be found at guidehouseresearch.com.
About Guidehouse
Guidehouse is a global AI-led professional services firm delivering advisory, technology, and managed services to the commercial and government sectors. With an integrated business technology approach, Guidehouse drives efficiency and resilience in the healthcare, financial services, energy, infrastructure, and national security markets. Built to help clients across industries outwit complexity, the firm brings together approximately 18,000 professionals to achieve lasting impact and shape a meaningful future. guidehouse.com
*The information contained in this press release concerning the report, What Impact Will the EU’s New CO2 Regulations Have on the Electric Light Commercial Vehicle Market?, is a summary and reflects the current expectations of Guidehouse Research based on market data and trend analysis. Market predictions and expectations are inherently uncertain and actual results may differ materially from those contained in this press release or the report. Please refer to the full report for a complete understanding of the assumptions underlying the report’s conclusions and the methodologies used to create the report. Neither Guidehouse Research nor Guidehouse undertakes any obligation to update any of the information contained in this press release or the report.
For more information, contact:
Cecile Fradkin for Guidehouse Research
+1.646.941.9139
cfradkin@scprgroup.com
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SOURCE Guidehouse Research
